After a magnificent performance against the host USA, Belgium is ready to face one of the World Cup favorites on Friday, 10th July at 3 pm (ET). While Belgium did not look convincing enough in the group stages, Spain also didn’t win by huge margins, except for their victory against Saudi Arabia in Group H. Today’s match will decide who’s going to play the lethal French team in the semi-finals on 15th July at 3 pm (ET).
Despite their recent victory against the USA, Belgium are the underdogs in today’s match. They might have won against the likes of New Zealand, Senegal, and the USA, but Spain is unlike those teams that give you many opportunities. The Spanish side had an unexpected start to the tournament after a 0-0 draw against Cabo Verde. Experts later realized that it was not Spain’s fault but Cabo Verde’s excellence that helped them against the likes of Argentina and Spain.
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Spain vs Belgium: Road to the quarterfinals
From a neutral perspective, Spain had a tougher group where they had to play against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cabo Verde. Though most were expecting Uruguay and Spain to be the dominant forces in Group H, Cabo Verde came as an element of surprise. On the other hand, Belgium had to face Iran, New Zealand, and Egypt, and the only two highly-ranked teams in Group G were Iran and Belgium.
However, the 2026 World Cup is full of surprises. Egypt played like they were about to win the trophy, and Cabo Verde played better than most World Champions. When Belgium was playing against Senegal, they were 2-0 behind until Romelu Lukaku’s 86th-minute wonder and Youri Tielemans’s 89th-minute goal equalized the scores. Eventually, Tielemans scored a penalty just moments before the end of extra time.
The round of 16 match against the United States was one of the most politically charged matches, as US President Donald Trump personally intervened with FIFA President Gianni Infantino to overturn the red card given to the US striker Folarin Balogun. The Red Devils stayed 2-1 ahead of the USA in the first half, and eventually ended the game with a 4-1 scoreline, marking their biggest victory by margin in FIFA World Cup knockouts.
In the round of 32, Spain were against Austria, who were playing their first World Cup after 28 years. Clearly, Spain were favorites, and they proved it by keeping 65% possession, 91% pass accuracy, and 611 passes to register a 3-0 victory. However, the most heartbreaking match for football fans was in the round of 16 when Portugal played against Spain. A close encounter which might have gone to extra time or penalty kicks, if the substitute Mikel Merino had not scored a goal, with an assist from Ferran Torres.
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Spain vs Belgium: Head-to-Head
Belgium and Spain have played each other twice in FIFA World Cups, and both have won one game each. However, Spain has a historical edge over Belgium as they have won 12, lost 5, and drawn 5 games in their international meetings. Their last encounter with Belgium was in 2016 in an International friendly where they won 2-0. It was Man City’s David Silva’s two goals that made all the difference.
Belgium undoubtedly has some phenomenal players such as Thibaut Courtois, Romelu Lukaku, and Kevin De Bruyne. However, we have seen how youngsters dominate the game of football. The average age of the Belgian squad is 27.7 years, whereas Spain’s average age is 26.8 years, based on Transfermarkt.com. However, these differences look minimal when players like KDB or Lukaku are having a great day.
The X-factor for Spain is Lamine Yamal, who’s being constantly referred to as the next big thing. The 2007-born star plays in wing and in midfield positions, and his playmaking abilities have helped FC Barcelona and Spain National Football Team dominate opponents. Besides, the whole squad is filled with the top Premier League and La Liga players.
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Spain vs Belgium: Betting Odds
Based on the Google stats, there is a 59% probability that Spain will win the game within regulation time, whereas Belgium has an 18% chance. And, 23% probability of the match going into extra time. However, this data is based on machine learning algorithms, where historical and real-time data are used for making decisions. But we all know that matches are played on the ground, not on paper or computers.
Polymarket data suggests Spain is the favorite and has 60% chances of winning the game within 90 minutes, whereas there are 17% chances of a Belgian victory and 24% chances of a draw. Beyond these primary outcomes, the spread line is set at 1.5 goals, meaning Belgium keeps the match within 1 goal margin, or Spain wins by multiple goals. Besides, the total goal line is positioned at 2.5, allowing bettors to predict whether the final combined score will be high or low.
However, considering the current World Cup scenario, bettors have lost millions of dollars because of upsets and surprises. A single bet might gain you or cost you a million. Sportsbooks and prediction platforms set these goal lines based on extensive data analysis to find a median score. And the biggest drawback of these scores is that they’re based on past performances.
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Spain vs Belgium: Players to watch for
Every time we talk about the key players, fans might stick to Kevin De Bruyne, Courtois, and Lukaku for Belgium. On the other hand, the current Spanish squad lacks experience but is young and energetic enough to knock out anyone. The Spanish coach could have played experienced players, but chose a young squad for a generational shift in Spain’s football.
Spanish forward Mikel Oyarzabal is the leading goal-scorer for his side with 4 goals and 1 assist in 435 minutes on the ground. He is known for his on-field intelligence, clinical finishing, and tight-ball control. In 58 appearances for Spain, he has scored 29 goals, making him a tough nut to crack for defenders. On the other hand, Lamine Yamal’s creative spark could be a game-changing factor for Spain.
The most interesting thing about the Spanish team is that they don’t rely on all-out attack but rather play strategically and keep possession until a great chance is created. With Rodri in midfield and Aymeric Laporte as a center-back, they have the most adequate squad with impactful players spread across the field. It would be interesting to watch whether they could outplay Belgium today.
Belgium used to be a dark horse, but for the past few years, they have given remarkable performances. While they couldn’t make it beyond the group stage in the 2022 World Cup, they are currently playing a much better game. Arsenal’s forward Leandro Trossard is the key attacker with two goals and assists each in 496 minutes of play. Also, Charles De Ketelaere has been one of the sensational forwards for the team.
The Aston Villa midfielder Youri Tielemans has been in good touch and has scored two goals in five appearances in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. He is playing the role of midfield engine and starts in every Belgium match. However, nobody can ignore Timothy Castagne as he is one of the most reliable right-backs who constantly delivers by providing crucial defensive stability to the side.
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Spain vs Belgium: What to expect
Based on experience, we believe that Spain vs Belgium would be a tougher fight than Morocco vs . While Belgium has experience, Spain has youth. However, when players are young and skillful, they can beat years of experience in a few moments. Belgium will try to stick to a 4-2-3-1 formation to have flexibility to attack and defend against the agility of Pedri and Yamal.
On the other side, Spain will use a 4-1-2-3 formation to maximize midfield control and attacking overloads and keep possession of the ball. The Red Devils will have to clog the midfield for La Roja and attack before they take the game deeper into the 80th minute or beyond. Spain’s strength is its on-field creativity, while its weakness is its dependency on star players.
Similarly, Belgium's defense has been a problem; even though they haven’t conceded many goals, their backline is not convincing enough to rely on. However, the best thing about the Belgian squad is their attack and midfield, which have been delivering fine performances. Overall, Spain is the favorite to win the match, but we can never write off Belgium.
